Nate Silver

American statistician, journalist, and poker player (born 1978)

1. Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US. 43 of the 50 states we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028. And it's not because of rigging.

   Nate Silver · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028 · 2026-06-29

2. I think there is no evidence of fraud in California. The mistake is to assume each ballot comes in independently when there are systematic differences between groups and when they tend to cast their ballots.

   Nate Silver · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028 · 2026-06-29

3. Democrats have lost plenty of elections recently, but not in California. California has become a machine state.

   Nate Silver · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028 · 2026-06-29

• $MGM MGM Resorts International — 1 mention
• $DKNG DraftKings — 1 mention
• Plain English with Derek Thompson · Why the Midterms Suddenly Look So Bad for Republicans · 2026-10-02
• Pod Save America · Poll Me Twice, Shame On Me · 2026-09-06
• All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028 · 2026-06-29