$SNPS Synopsys Tape Reports
Per Ticker.id: $SNPS Synopsys Tape Reports — 1 podcast mention across 1 podcast (30 days), latest 2026-07-29 21:47 UTC.
And for this one, I just kind of wanna give you my interpretation and then let you kind of elaborate on that or tell me where you think it'll be particularly useful or what you guys have seen since the paper came out. My synopsis of this one was that basically if you have a way of interpreting a model like an SAE, or we'll get into featurizers, I think a little bit later as well. Then you can run a bunch of data through it. You're like fine-tuning or post-training dataset. You can look at what concepts are coming up active a lot when we put this dataset through. And then the kind of insight is there's a strong correlation between the concepts that are active and the concepts that are being modified by the training process. So I think that right there is like, file that away, folks, as something to remember. Not shocking, but like it's, it's notable that the relationship is quite strong there. And then when you see these concepts that are active and you know that those are the ones that are going to be modified, you could just look and see like, are there any concepts here that are kind of strange to us, surprising, we don't really intend to be monkeying around with, with the dataset that we have at hand. And if so, then you can quickly zoom in on what are the data points that have caused these features to come up. And then you might find that actually there's some stuff in our dataset we maybe ought to think twice about. Maybe we ought to filter, maybe we ought to modify. And this gives you a route to hopefully minimizing unwanted surprises in the behavior that you get from your post-training or fine-tuning work. How'd I do? And what more should I know?
Thinking in Silico — "The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis · Thinking in Silico: Goodfire CTO Dan Balsam on Concept Manifolds & a $1000/Month ML Research Agent · 2026-08-08And by the way, Max, yeah, so we had two semiconductor companies just report earnings, Arm and then Qualcomm. I'm looking at Arm Holdings. It doesn't seem amazing. Total revenue up 22%, royalty revenue up 22% as well, 23%. Like, these are good numbers. And like, Arm basically having exceptionally high profit margins, having a royalty on all chips that are created, or, you know, most chips that are created. Is an exceptional business model. So I'm, uh, I'm not bearish on Arm. I don't own the stock individually, but I have been paying attention. You know, it was in my view very overvalued at like whatever, you know, it's been cut in half. And, um, so I was considering looking at it. Of course, Arm is the leader in semiconductor licensing intellectual property. The other players are Synopsys, Cadence, and, uh, Rambus. And of course, you know, so many semiconductor companies like Nvidia, they have vast, vast IP. They just you know, don't really, um, you know, license it, or they don't have— you can argue that that is NVIDIA's whole business model is licensing its, its, uh, its designs. But, you know, they sell it. They don't, they don't just like collect a little 1%, 2% on top. But, um, ARM is, uh, yeah, it, uh, seems like a kind of a meh quarter. Um, let's look at Qualcomm. And then, oh, by the way, Max, in terms of semiconductors, KLA, one of the— it's definitely the semicap equipment name that I know, uh, the least, but They're like mostly testing. They had a quarter that last— last reported last night. It was not that good. I like, for some reason, I think like the hedge fund people love KLA so much more than, you know, ASML or Lam Research. And I think it's because they think that KLA has a high percentage of recurring revenue just because, you know, everything constantly needs to be tested. And I guess that's true. But that, that, I think that means that their revenues can increase the least, as opposed to ASML and Lam Research, because, you know, they could, uh, they could sell a lot of machines. And of course, the most extreme example of that is, uh, you know, Micron and SK Hynix. SK Hynix reported, reported last. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Jack Farley — Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · Mum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay) · 2026-07-29That's perfect. So you just gave a perfect synopsis of the last 200 years. Yeah. And so the Industrial Revolution—
Zach Bush — The Joe Rogan Experience · #2529 - Zach Bush · 2026-07-22Hi, Steve Eisman here. On my weekly wrap, I try to both teach and convey information as objectively as possible. But in today's media, on any important story, if I read about it in a newspaper with a leftist slant, I'll get one depiction of the story. But if I read about it from a more conservative publication, I'll get a very different take. What's the news and what's opinion is increasingly hard to differentiate. That's why when I look into news events, I first go to Ground News. Ground News is my solution for getting to the facts of important stories, but also to see how left, right, and center are seeking to convey the same exact story. Take, for example, the headline Trump Treasury Secretary calls for single stock trading ban in Congress. To understand the story, I went to groundnews.com and clicked on that particular story headline. There I immediately saw 4 tabs: left, center, right, and bias comparison. When I clicked on the center tab, a series of headlines appeared, all from center-leaning sources. I could then click on any of those headlines and read the story at the source. The same happened when I clicked on the left tab and on the right tab. The bias comparison tab showed Ground News' own analysis of how all three political leanings conveyed the same exact story. I find the Ground News system enormously helpful because it allows me to easily separate the facts from opinions. I use Ground News and I recommend you try it out. Go to groundnews.com/reel to get 40% off their unlimited access Vantage subscription. That's groundnews.com/reel. Real, groundnews.com/real. And if you don't mind, use this link to get the discount so they know I sent you. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini in Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration blog, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini in Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses, setup required, compatibility and availability varies, 18+. The banks kicked off earnings season. I'm going to share some thoughts on a bunch of the large banks that reported because they provide great insight into the state of the current credit cycle. IBM was down 25% on this news on Tuesday, its worst day ever, and it took the entire software sector down with it. Netflix reported. Netflix has lost its mojo. In the past, I have said, as the banks go, so goes the economy. Probably not this time. I'm starting to think that the entire future of the US economy hinges on the success or failure of AI. The potential issues in AI and in private credit will determine whether and when there will be a recession. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and this is another episode of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending Friday, July 17th, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, July 16th, 2026. Before we get to the wrap, I would like to remind everyone about our move to Substack and explain the value add. Substack is an exciting community of like-minded investors and creators, and the conversations are incredibly dynamic. The Substack ecosystem is well established with a large variety of podcasters that I interact with regularly. As a free Substack subscriber, you will receive emails sent directly to you every time we release a new premium episode and a sneak peek preview of both the video and newsletter. You'll also have access to our notes and restacks. The link to join for free is in the description. Let me quickly flag what is on our premium Substack subscription. On Wednesday, July 15th, we released an interview with Boris Peeker, the biotechnology analyst at Jones Trading. We had an incredibly extensive discussion about the entire biotech landscape and future drug innovation. I think the biggest impact AI could do is reduce the probability of failure of a clinical study, particularly large clinical study. That would be extremely helpful, right? It was an amazing tour de force where we explored the vast world of biotech. I learned a ton. Next week on Wednesday, July 22nd, we will release an interview with recurring guest Ken Sahowski, the payments analyst at Autonomous. We discussed how AI and agentic AI are changing the entire payments landscape. The link for premium is in the description. And now for the wrap. On this week's wrap, we will have one, the war in Iran, of course, some more news about Circle and stablecoins. PayPal might be for sale. IBM reported a disastrous quarter. It actually pre-announced with terrible implications for the software sector. Elevance, UnitedHealthcare, GE Aerospace, and Netflix also reported. Banks reported giving a broad view of the economy and one mailbag. And here we go. In war news, the situation is escalating. The US and Iran are trading strikes and there is a dispute as to whether the strait is open. But it's pretty clear now that the strait is not open. Oil prices climbed above $80 and the 10-year climbed to almost 4.6%. Last week there were two major pieces of news with respect to Circle. As a reminder, Circle is the stablecoin company that went public in June of 2025. Circle creates stablecoins, a financial product that is trying to make inroads into the traditional payment systems. Circle is the second largest creator of stablecoins. Tether is the largest. On Tuesday, June 30th, there was some very negative news. Circle was down 17.5% that day because a consortium of companies including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, and BlackRock unveiled their own stablecoin and stablecoin ecosystem. The second piece of news came out last Friday. 3 days later, Circle announced that it had received regulatory approval to become a trust bank. And on this news, the stock was up 5%. To understand its importance, you need to understand how Circle makes money. A Circle customer buys $1 worth of Circle stablecoin. Called USDC. Circle gives the customer a stablecoin, a USDC worth $1 that the customer can then use to pay for stuff. To preserve the value of the stablecoin, Circle takes the dollar and buys short-term US Treasuries, a security whose value does not, I repeat, does not fluctuate. Circle earns the interest on the Treasuries, and that is Circle's sole source of revenue today. One caveat: Circle doesn't actually physically buy the Treasuries. It puts it in a money market fund run by BlackRock, and BlackRock manages the money market fund and charges Circle 18 basis points. So Circle makes the interest on the Treasuries less the 18 basis points. The bank charter means that Circle can run its own money market fund and save the 18 basis points. Now, don't get me wrong. The bank charter is certainly a positive for Circle, but between the two pieces of news, the competition from the Visa Mastercard consortium is more important. The importance of having Visa and Mastercard as part of the consortium cannot be overstated. Creating a stablecoin is just not that complicated. Breaking into the payment system is complicated, and having Visa and Mastercard as part of the consortium is crucial. Circle went public on June 5th, 2025 at $31 per share. With a peak just below $2.70 on June 23rd, 2025. It's only about 2 weeks later. Circle is now trading around $0.63. The payment space remains a very difficult space. My view now about Circle is that the big companies like Visa and Mastercard are paying attention to the stablecoin space. Circle is just too small to compete with these giants. It has a nice franchise but needs to team up with bigger players. If I was running Circle, I'd be looking to sell the company. And speaking of selling the company, PayPal may have finally put its shareholders out of their misery. The stock reached a peak of $300 in the late summer of 2021. Tuesday night, the stock was $47.37. Wednesday morning, there were unconfirmed reports— still unconfirmed— that PayPal was selling to Stripe and Advent for $60.50., which would put the stock at roughly where it was at the end of last year. At $60.50, PayPal is being valued at 11 times the 2026 EP estimate. I think other payment companies need to follow. The space has become too difficult as companies keep entering each other's space. For a deeper dive on the payments space, take a look at our episode on January 26th, 2026 with Ken Sahowski, the payments re-analyst at Autonomous Research. Now, before we get to the banks, we got a whole bunch of companies to cover. I want to first focus on IBM, which pre-announced, pre-announced a terrible quarter on Tuesday. Now, until now, investors have been worried about the long-term and negative implications of AI on the software sector, the so-called SaaS-pocalypse. I love saying that. IBM's results show that there are now short-term implications as well. IBM pre-announced EPS of $2.93 versus $2.80 last year, but a miss versus expectations of $3.01. Worse, revenue of $17.2 billion missed expectations of $17.9 billion. So quite a miss. It is, I must emphasize, unusual for a company of IBM's size to miss both EPS and revenue guidance only one quarter out. Things must have changed rapidly this quarter. And what were those changes? Two of IBM's major businesses are its software and infrastructure businesses. The infrastructure business provides hardware, software, and services to critical enterprise workloads. So it too is partially a software business. So why the miss? The problem is the dramatic increase in prices for chips and other tech equipment because of AI demand. IBM management stated, and I quote, In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly CapEx spend towards servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, unquote. So now there is a long-term SaaS-pocalypse and a short-term SaaS-pocalypse. I like saying that sentence. IBM was down 25% on this news on Tuesday, its worst day ever., and it took the entire software sector down with it. Another side to the same coin was the results at Ericsson, which develops network equipment and software. The stock was down double digits on Tuesday on its earnings report. Ericsson reported a 7% decline in earnings and revenue fell 6%, and it provided weak guidance because of component cost inflation. So Ericsson is suffering from higher semiconductor and tech equipment costs. And still another side to the same coin were the positive results at ASML, which produces semiconductor equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. ASML is clearly a beneficiary of the AI boom. It reported a strong quarter. It beat on EPS and revenue and it raised guidance and the stock was up. In health insurance, Elevance and UnitedHealth reported. The group has done very well this year as companies have been able to raise prices enough to finally overcome higher healthcare costs. However, it's still a tough environment. Elevance reported on Wednesday EPS of $7.45, down 16% versus last year, but higher than the $6.18 estimate. The stock was down on the print for two reasons. The company raised guidance, but by less than the second quarter beat. And perhaps more importantly, total membership dropped by 1% as the increase in prices negatively impact membership. On the other hand, the very next day, UnitedHealthcare reported and the market really liked the results. Company beat expectations and raised guidance. It's all in the pricing. Revenue is flat, but UNH and the industry in the process of raising prices, and that is improving margins. Moving on, GE Aerospace is riding a positive cycle in aerospace, and it also reported. While the results were great, the stock was down on the print. Why? First, the results. The company reported earnings per share of $2.02 versus $1.66 last year and versus the estimate of $1.86. Revenue was $12.63 billion, up a nice 24% and almost $1 billion higher than the estimate. So far, so good. Company raised guidance to $765 to $785 versus prior guidance of $710 to $740 and versus expectations of $756. That sounds good too, but the stock was down around 4% because investors clearly wanted the company to raise guidance by more. On such stuff stocks move. And finally, before we get to the banks, Netflix reported Thursday night. Netflix reported EPS and revenue in line with expectations. EPS was up 11%, which is nice, but not like the go-go days. Moreover, in the press release, the company said it would cut back on the frequency of its What We Watched reports, which provide a picture of engagement. In the future, Netflix said that it will publish this report only annually in the first quarter of each year. The market did not like the fact that the results only met expectations, and it also did not like the virtual elimination of the What We Watched report. And the stock was down 8% after hours and is down 20% this year. Netflix has lost its mojo. And now for the banks. Steve Eisman here. If you eat well, stay active, and still wake up exhausted every morning, the missing piece isn't your effort. It could be your sleep quality. Sleep sets the stage for the rest of your day. It's the time when your body quietly goes to work to to heal your mind and body, steady your mood, and generally restore your energy so you can show up at work, home, and throughout life rested and ready. When sleep feels like a struggle, it affects everything. Your focus, patience, productivity, they all depend on getting high-quality sleep. If you've noticed changes in your sleep patterns or experienced symptoms like snoring or excessive daytime tiredness, Sleep Doctor can help you find your way back to great sleep. Sleep Doctor moves past the guesswork to help you understand what's happening while you're asleep so you can stop powering through the day and start living in it. Sleep Doctor offers guidance and a clear path for all your sleep problems. By starting with a clinical-grade home sleep study, you'll get the insights you need to uncover the root of your fatigue. The test is a simple alternative to a sleep lab that can be completed in your own bed over one night. No more guessing, just clear answers and practical steps back to the rest you deserve. If you've been overlooking your sleep while optimizing everything else, this may be the missing piece. Visit sleepdoctor.com to take the first step to waking up rested and ready. Now accepting most insurance. Hi, Steve Eisen here. Summer always changes how I get dressed. I want pieces that feel lighter and more breathable, things that are easy but still put together. That's why I keep coming back to Quince. They focus on high-quality essentials that feel and look amazing. Think breathable linen and soft organic cotton. Well-made basics, but without the luxury markup. It's that rare balance where everything feels elevated, but still effortless. Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middlemen. So you're paying for quality, not brand markup. Recently, I bought a gorgeous blue linen shirt and a super comfortable terry cloth sweatshirt, and I'm wearing that right now, and I love them both. Elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quince.com/icebend for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's quince.com/icebend. Q-U-I-N-C-E.com/icebend for free shipping and 365-day returns. quince.com/icebend. The banks kicked off earnings season. I'm going to share some thoughts on a bunch of the large banks that reported and then show you how to think about valuation given the results. Before I do that, I want to focus on how the large bank results are of particular importance because they provide great insight into the state of the current credit cycle. The four large banks— JPMorgan, Citi, Wells, and Bank of America— have large and broad-based lending businesses. On the consumer side, they provide credit cards, auto loans, and several other types of consumer loans. On the commercial side, they make commercial real estate and corporate loans and other types of commercial loans as well. They don't do everything, but they are big enough and broad enough to provide a real window into the health of the US economy. By analyzing the credit results of these 4 banks, we can get a closer understanding of whether the problems in the private credit sector are broadening into a large credit cycle for the overall economy. Now, there is growing fear that credit losses will start to mount for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis. And we've had 17 years of amazingly benign credit quality, and investors are wondering if the good times are going to be over. Yes, private credit is exposed to software and software is getting hit by AI. But are there signs of broad credit problems emerging in the actual data? When the major banks report, they provide reams of data. JPMorgan's quarterly earnings release supplement is 29 pages long and is filled with information on every page. That is typical of how the banks report. To see trends in credit quality, the best place to look is to examine consumer and commercial non-accruing loans. A non-accruing loan is a loan that is seriously delinquent, usually 90+ days. A bank no longer reports interest income from these loans and reserves for future losses. I am putting on the screen consumer and commercial non-accruing loan data for JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America for 2Q25, 1Q26, and 2Q26. These 4 banks combined provide a large window into credit quality trends. If there was a serious trend of deteriorating credit, we would see increases in non-accruing consumer or commercial loans or both on a year-over-year basis and a quarterly sequential basis. We certainly saw large increases in consumer non-accrual loans leading up to the GFC. We are not seeing that now at all. I want to emphasize that at all. The credit data is benign in both consumer and commercial. For those of you who are just audio listeners, I'll just focus on JPMorgan and Bank of America. For JPMorgan, total non-accruing loans were $9.4 billion in 2Q26. They were down 5% year over year and down 2% versus 1Q26. The numbers at Bank of America were also very benign. 2Q26 total non-accruals were $5.8 billion, down 4% year over year and flat with 1Q26. Conclusion. The credit trends reported by the large banks are very benign. Maybe a credit cycle will emerge, but we are not seeing it in the banks. That is an important data point. The banks have the broadest credit exposures, so their results are a concurrent indicator. And this brings me to my conclusion about the state of the US economy. Since the GFC, many commentators have tried to predict the next crisis. This is it, they say. That it isn't. Perhaps the most important story of the past 17 years is how powerful and resilient the US economy has become. Yes, there are problems in private credit with respect to overexposure to software, and perhaps these software issues are harbingers of an approaching credit cycle. Yet the banks have shown once again that credit quality in the US is okay. Until that changes, the US economy will be fine. Fine, yes, but we do have a K-shaped economy, so it's not fine for everyone. I just don't see a recession though on the horizon as long as bank credit quality is benign. The problems that may emerge in the US economy rest not with the banks. They rest elsewhere. Whether AI will succeed or fail, whether private credit will show more problems, that is where problems could occur. In my view, the banks this time are not leading indicators. In the past, I have said, as the banks go, so goes the economy. Probably not this time. The banks are extremely well-capitalized and their credit quality is benign. The potential issues in AI and in private credit will determine whether and when there will be a recession. It would be much easier to predict the future if the banks were the leading indicator because the data the banks produce are voluminous and transparent, while private credit is much more opaque, making future economic weakness much trickier to see. Frankly, I'm starting to think that the entire future of the US economy hinges on the success or failure of AI. That's why I talk about it so much. As for the financial results of the banks this quarter, they once again posted powerful results, largely because of extremely strong investment banking and trading. The banks are partial beneficiaries of the AI boom, as companies with AI financing needs are going to Wall Street for help. These results produce record levels of returns. Here's a brief synopsis. JPMorgan, EPS was $6.14 versus $4.96, 24% growth. Revenue was also a big beat and was up 15% versus last year. The return on tangible common equity was a very strong 23%. Bank of America also reported a great quarter of $1.21 versus $0.89, 36% growth, and versus the consensus of $1.12. Revenue was up 15% on better trading, investment banking, and it had nice operating leverage. Return on Tangible Common Equity was a strong 16.5%. Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has a history of occasionally disappointing, like last quarter, but not this time. Wells results beat. EPS was $2 versus $1.60, 25% growth. Again, the strong results were largely from trading and investment banking. Wells' Return on Tangible Common Equity has been stuck at 14 to 15% for many quarters. This quarter elevated the ROTCE to 17.7%. Impressive. Citi also had a good quarter for similar reasons. The company reported EPS of $3.15 versus $2.12, 48% growth. Company posted strong results in services, trading, and investment banking, and the return on tangible common equity was 13%, the same as the first quarter of this year and versus 8% in the second quarter of last year. Right now we are in a golden age for investment banking. Trading volumes are high. AI is creating massive financing needs. The IPO market isn't bad and M&A is very strong. That's why the most powerful results this quarter came from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reported a great quarter. It reported EPS of $20.98 versus $10.91, 92% growth. Wow. Again, the results were supported by powerful trading and investment banking, and the return on tangible common equity was a powerful 25.5%. Like Goldman, Morgan Stanley produced powerful numbers too. Revenue was at record levels and up 27% versus last year. EPS was up 62%, and the return on tangible common equity was a best-in-class 26.6%. As to how to value the banks, the easiest and most consistent way is to look at the return on tangible common equity. The higher that percentage, the higher the price to tangible common equity. That's why Goldman, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are valued at 3 to 4 times tangible book, their return on tangible common equities exceed 20%. At the same time, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi are at 1.3 to 2.1 times tangible book as their ROTCEs are 13 to 18%. Our one mailbag is a follow-up from last week. Last week I answered a premium subscriber's question as to what I read. I provided a list of books, mostly history books, but I also mentioned that I read graphic novels and comic books partially because I find them somewhat oddly prescient, and they also tell great stories. I did not provide any titles, so of course several viewers asked for titles of graphic novels. This could be an endless discussion. My digital comic book collection exceeds 11,000 comics. If I listed every comic I like, we'd be here all day and all night. So I'll just name my top 21. Number 1: Sandman by Neil Gaiman. Maybe the greatest comic book ever written. The Netflix series was pretty good too. It's about the God of Dreams. 2. Lucifer by Mike Carey, a Sandman spinoff. And yes, that Lucifer. Lucifer quits being the devil and ends up living in Los Angeles. This comic is one of the deepest theological stories I have ever encountered. Number 3, Fables by Bill Willingham. Snow White, Sleeping Beauty, and Prince Charming have been living in Greenwich Village for hundreds of years. A great story. Number 4, Hellblazer. Varied authors. Some authors were better than others, but the character Constantine is complex and amazing. Number 5, Swamp Thing. One of the most underrated comics ever, but one of my favorites. Alan Moore changed the entire story. Number 6, The Dark Knight Returns by Frank Miller, published in 1986. This story changed comics forever. It made comics darker and much more serious. Number 7, Batman: Year One by Frank Miller. And number 8, Daredevil: Born Again, also by Frank Miller. Number 9, Watchmen by Alan Moore, an iconic comic. Number 10, Lazarus by Greg Rucka. This comic is ongoing and has been going on for more than a decade, but it's the best dystopian story in comics. The entire world is ruled by a few rich families. 11, Nemesis by Mark Millar, just a great story. Wolverine: Old Man Logan, an alternative history comic. 13, Welcome to Tranquility by Gail Simone, superheroes living in suburbia. This is an amusing story. Number 14, Flashpoint by Geoff Johns. What happens when the Flash changes history? The results are not good. 15, The Boys by Garth Ennis, the original story of a world where superheroes are bad. Up is down and down is up. 16, Starman by James Robinson. Robinson takes a B-level superhero and elevates him. 17, The Golden Age by James Robinson. What if Hitler had survived? 18, Avengers Disassembled by Brian Michael Bendis. What happens when a superhero goes completely insane? 19, House of M, also by Brian Michael Bendis, the sequel to Avengers Disassembled. 20, Powers by Brian Michael Bendis. What happens when a superhero loses his powers and becomes a cop? And finally, 21, Alias by Brian Michael Bendis. This comic introduces the character Jessica Jones to the Marvel Universe. It's a story of an emotionally damaged superhero who becomes a private detective. And in honor of the new movie The Odyssey coming out this Friday, I have a book recommendation. There are many novels that explore aspects of The Iliad and The Odyssey, and I've read several. For me, the best one is a trilogy written by David Gemmell. The first book is called Lord of the Silver Bow. It's a complete reimagining of the Trojan War story, and it's fantastic. This last Monday, July 13th, we released on our free service an interview with Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo, and we discussed a broad range of topics but focused a lot on the impact of AI on the overall US economy. So check it out. And this coming Monday, July 20th, we will release an interview with Ben Callow, the sustainable energy and mobility analyst at Baird. We discuss how the buildout of AI data centers has upended the entire sustainable energy landscape Creating a hypergrowth story. The best way to support the Realize and Playbook is to subscribe to Substack and to YouTube. Subscriptions are free and we appreciate your support. And that's the wrap. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The hosts and guests may hold positions in stocks discussed. Opinions expressed are their own and not recommendations. Please do your own due Do your due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I'm Glen Washington from Snap Judgment, the storytelling podcast from KQED. Imagine an iconic piece of paradise overrun by one of the most horrific fires in recent memory. Everyone flees. Everyone except one person who decides to fight the flames alone. The moment when nature, institutions, and technology fail at the exact same time. That's All Systems Down, a new Snap Judgment miniseries from KQED. Tap to listen now. Imagine if having your cake and eating it too was about banking, not baking. Silicon Valley Bank and First Citizens Bank have created a recipe that blends decades of innovation economy experience with more than a century of stability. Now you don't have to choose between deep sector expertise and lasting financial security. Instead, you can enjoy them both. Silicon Valley Bank and First Citizens Bank. It's the best of bank worlds.
Steve Eisman — The Real Eisman Playbook · Bank Earnings Just Gave the Market a Much Needed Confidence Boost | The Weekly Wrap · 2026-07-17Hi, Steve Eisman here. On my weekly wrap, I try to both teach and convey information as objectively as possible. But in today's media, on any important story, if I read about it in a newspaper with a leftist slant, I'll get one depiction of the story. But if I read about it from a more conservative publication, I'll get a very different take. What's the news and what's opinion is increasingly hard to differentiate. That's why when I look into news events, I first go to Ground News. Ground News is my solution for getting to the facts of important stories, but also to see how left, right, and center are seeking to convey the same exact story. Take, for example, the headline Trump Treasury Secretary calls for single stock trading ban in Congress. To understand the story, I went to groundnews.com and clicked on that particular story headline. There I immediately saw 4 tabs: left, center, right, and bias comparison. When I clicked on the center tab, a series of headlines appeared, all from center-leaning sources. I could then click on any of those headlines and read the story at the source. The same happened when I clicked on the left tab and on the right tab. The bias comparison tab showed Ground News' own analysis of how all three political leanings conveyed the same exact story. I find the Ground News system enormously helpful because it allows me to easily separate the facts from opinions. I use Ground News and I recommend you try it out. Go to groundnews.com/reel to get 40% off their unlimited access Vantage subscription. That's groundnews.com/reel. Real groundnews.com/real. And if you don't mind, use this link to get the discount so they know I sent you. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at accenture.com/spotify. The banks kicked off earnings season. I'm going to share some thoughts on a bunch of the large banks that reported because they provide great insight into the state of the current credit cycle. IBM was down 25% on this news on Tuesday, its worst day ever, and it took the entire software sector down with it. Netflix reported. Netflix has lost its mojo. In the past, I have said, as the banks go, so goes the economy. Probably not this time. I'm starting to think that the entire future of the US economy hinges on the success or failure of AI. The potential issues in AI and in private credit will determine whether and when there will be a recession. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and this is another episode of The Weekly Wrap. This is for the week ending Friday, July 17th, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, July 16th, 2026. Before we get to the wrap, I would like to remind everyone about our move to Substack and explain the value add. Substack is an exciting community of like-minded investors and creators, and the conversations are incredibly dynamic. The Substack ecosystem is well-established with a large variety of podcasters that I interact with regularly. As a free Substack subscriber, you will receive emails sent directly to you every time we release a new premium episode and a sneak peek preview of both the video and newsletter. You'll also have access to our notes and restacks. The link to join for free is in the description. Let me quickly flag what is on our premium Substack subscription. On Wednesday, July 15th, we released an interview with Boris Peeker, the biotechnology analyst at Jones Trading. We had an incredibly extensive discussion about the entire entire biotech landscape and future drug innovation. I think the biggest impact AI could do is reduce the probability of failure of a clinical study, particularly large clinical study. That would be extremely helpful, right? It was an amazing tour de force where we explored the vast world of biotech. I learned a ton. Next week on Wednesday, July 22nd, we will release an interview with recurring guest Ken Sahowski, the payments analyst at Autonomous. We discussed how AI and agentic AI are changing the entire payments landscape. The link for premium is in the description. And now for the wrap. On this week's wrap, we will have one, the war in Iran, of course, some more news about Circle and stablecoins. PayPal might be for sale. IBM reported a disastrous quarter. It actually pre-announced with terrible implications for the software sector. Elevance, UnitedHealthcare, GE Aerospace, and Netflix also reported. Banks reported giving a broad view of the economy and one mailbag. And here we go. In war news, the situation is escalating. The US and Iran are trading strikes and there is a dispute as to whether the strait is open. But it's pretty clear now that the strait is not open. Oil prices climbed above $80 and the 10-year climbed to almost 4.6%. Last week there were two major pieces of news with respect to Circle. As a reminder, Circle is the stablecoin company that went public in June of 2025. Circle creates stablecoins, a financial product that is trying to make inroads into the traditional payment systems. Circle is the second largest creator of stablecoins. Tether is the largest. On Tuesday, June 30th, there was some very negative news. Circle was down 17.5% that day because a consortium of companies including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, and BlackRock unveiled their own stablecoin and stablecoin ecosystem. The second piece of news came out last Friday. 3 days later, Circle announced that it had received regulatory approval to become a trust bank. And on this news, the stock was up 5%. To understand its importance, you need to understand how Circle makes money. A Circle customer buys $1 worth of Circle stablecoin. Called USDC. Circle gives the customer a stablecoin, a USDC worth $1 that the customer can then use to pay for stuff. To preserve the value of the stablecoin, Circle takes the dollar and buys short-term US Treasuries, a security whose value does not, I repeat, does not fluctuate. Circle earns the interest on the Treasuries, and that is Circle's sole source of revenue today. One caveat: Circle doesn't actually physically buy the Treasuries. It puts it in a money market fund run by BlackRock, and BlackRock manages the money market fund and charges Circle 18 basis points. So Circle makes the interest on the Treasuries less the 18 basis points. The bank charter means that Circle can run its own money market fund and save the 18 basis points. Now, don't get me wrong. The bank charter is certainly a positive for Circle, but between the two pieces of news, the competition from the Visa Mastercard consortium is more important. The importance of having Visa and Mastercard as part of the consortium cannot be overstated. Creating a stablecoin is just not that complicated. Breaking into the payment system is complicated, and having Visa and Mastercard as part of the consortium is crucial. Circle went public on June 5th, 2025 at $31 per share. With a peak just below $2.70 on June 23rd, 2025. It's only about 2 weeks later. Circle is now trading around $0.63. The payment space remains a very difficult space. My view now about Circle is that the big companies like Visa and Mastercard are paying attention to the stablecoin space. Circle is just too small to compete with these giants. It has a nice franchise but needs to team up with bigger players. If I was running Circle,, I'd be looking to sell the company. And speaking of selling the company, PayPal may have finally put its shareholders out of their misery. The stock reached a peak of $300 in the late summer of 2021. Tuesday night, the stock was $47.37. Wednesday morning, there were unconfirmed reports— still unconfirmed— that PayPal was selling to Stripe and Advent for $60.50, which would put the stock at roughly where it was at the end of last year. At 60/50, PayPal is being valued at 11 times the 2026 EP estimate. I think other payment companies need to follow. The space has become too difficult as companies keep entering each other's space. For a deeper dive on the payment space, take a look at our episode on January 26th, 2026 with Ken Sahowski, the payments reanalyst at Autonomous Research. Now, before we get to the banks, we got a whole bunch of companies to cover. I want to first focus on IBM,, which pre-announced, pre-announced a terrible quarter on Tuesday. Now, until now, investors have been worried about the long-term and negative implications of AI on the software sector, the so-called SaaS-pocalypse. I love saying that. IBM's results show that there are now short-term implications as well. IBM pre-announced EPS of $2.93 versus $2.80 last year, but a miss versus expectations of $3. And a penny. Worse, revenue of $17.2 billion missed expectations of $17.9 billion. So quite a miss. It is, I must emphasize, unusual for a company of IBM's size to miss both EPS and revenue guidance only one quarter out. Things must have changed rapidly this quarter. And what were those changes? Two of IBM's major businesses are its software and infrastructure businesses. The infrastructure business provides hardware, software, and services to critical enterprise workloads. So it too is partially a software business. So why the miss? The problem is the dramatic increase in prices for chips and other tech equipment because of AI demand. IBM management stated, and I quote, in the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly CapEx spend towards servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, unquote. So now there is a long-term SaaS-pocalypse and a short-term SaaS-pocalypse. I like saying that sentence. IBM was down 25% on this news on Tuesday, its worst day ever, and it took the entire software sector down with it. Another side to the same coin was the results at Ericsson, which develops network equipment and software. The stock was down double digits on Tuesday on its earnings report. Ericsson reported a 7% decline in earnings and revenue fell 6%, and it provided weak guidance because of component cost inflation. So Ericsson is suffering from higher semiconductor and tech equipment costs. And still another side to the same coin were the positive results at ASML, which produces semiconductor equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips. Through lithography. ASML is clearly a beneficiary of the AI boom. It reported a strong quarter. It beat on EPS and revenue and it raised guidance and the stock was up. In health insurance, Elevance and UnitedHealth reported. The group has done very well this year as companies have been able to raise prices enough to finally overcome higher healthcare costs. However, it's still a tough environment. Elevance reported on Wednesday EPS of $7.45, down 16% versus last year. But higher than the $618 estimate. The stock was down on the print for two reasons. The company raised guidance, but by less than the second quarter beat. And perhaps more importantly, total membership dropped by 1% as the increase in prices negatively impact membership. On the other hand, the very next day, UnitedHealthcare reported and the market really liked the results. Company beat expectations and raised guidance. It's all in the pricing. Revenue is flat, but UNH and the industry in the process of raising prices, and that is improving margins. Moving on, GE Aerospace is riding a positive cycle in aerospace, and it also reported. While the results were great, the stock was down on the print. Why? First, the results. The company reported earnings per share of $2.02 versus $1.66 last year and versus the estimate of $1.86. Revenue was $12.63 billion, up a nice 24% and almost $1 billion higher than the estimate. So far, so good. Company raised guidance to $765 to $785 versus prior guidance of $710 to $740 and versus expectations of $756. That sounds good too, but the stock was down around 4% because investors clearly wanted the company to raise guidance by more. On such stuff, stocks move. And finally, before we get to the banks, Netflix reported Thursday night. Netflix reported EPS and revenue in line with expectations. EPS was up 11%, which is nice, but not like the go-go days. Moreover, in the press release, the company said it would cut back on the frequency of its What We Watched reports, which provide a picture of engagement. In the future, Netflix said that it will publish this report only annually in the first quarter of each year. The market did not like the fact that the results only met expectations, and it also did not like the virtual elimination of the What We Watched report., and the stock was down 8% after hours and is down 20% this year. Netflix has lost its mojo. And now for the banks. Steve Eisman here. If you eat well, stay active, and still wake up exhausted every morning, the missing piece isn't your effort. It could be your sleep quality. Sleep sets the stage for the rest of your day. It's the time when your body quietly goes to work to heal your mind and body, steady your mood, and generally restore your energy so you can show up at work, home, and throughout life rested and ready. When sleep feels like a struggle, it affects everything. Your focus, patience, productivity, they all depend on getting high-quality sleep. If you've noticed changes in your sleep patterns or experienced symptoms like snoring or excessive daytime tiredness, Sleep Doctor can help you find your way back to great sleep. Sleep Doctor moves past the guesswork to help you understand what's happening while you're asleep so you can stop powering through the day and start living in it. Sleep Doctor offers guidance and a clear path for all your sleep problems. By starting with a clinical-grade home sleep study, you'll get the insights you need to uncover the root of your fatigue. The test is a simple alternative to a sleep lab that can be completed in your own bed over one night. No more guessing, just clear answers and practical steps back to the rest you deserve. If you've been overlooking your sleep while optimizing everything else, this may be the missing piece. Visit sleepdoctor.com to take the first step to waking up rested and ready. Now accepting most insurance. Hi, Steve Eiseman here. Summer always changes how I get dressed. I want pieces that feel lighter and more breathable. Things that are easy but still put together. That's why I keep coming back to Quince. They focus on high-quality essentials that feel and look amazing. Think breathable linen and soft organic cotton. Well-made basics but without the luxury markup. It's that rare balance where everything feels elevated but still effortless. Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. They work work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middlemen, so you're paying for quality, not brand markup. Recently I bought a gorgeous blue linen shirt and a super comfortable terrycloth sweatshirt, and I'm wearing that right now, and I love them both. Elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quince.com/iceben for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's quince.com/iceben, Q-U-I-N-C-E dot com slash iceben, for free shipping and 365-day returns. Quince.com/eisman. The banks kicked off earnings season. I'm going to share some thoughts on a bunch of the large banks that reported and then show you how to think about valuation given the results. Before I do that, I want to focus on how the large bank results are of particular importance because they provide great insight into the state of the current credit cycle. The four large banks— JPMorgan, Citi, Wells, and Bank of America— have large and broad-based lending businesses. On the consumer side, they provide credit cards, auto loans, and several other types consumer loans. On the commercial side, they make commercial real estate and corporate loans and other types of commercial loans as well. They don't do everything, but they are big enough and broad enough to provide a real window into the health of the US economy. By analyzing the credit results of these 4 banks, we can get a closer understanding of whether the problems in the private credit sector are broadening into a large credit cycle for the overall economy. Now, there is growing fear that credit losses will start to mount for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.. And we've had 17 years of amazingly benign credit quality, and investors are wondering if the good times are going to be over. Yes, private credit is exposed to software and software is getting hit by AI. But are there signs of broad credit problems emerging in the actual data? When the major banks report, they provide reams of data. JPMorgan's quarterly earnings release supplement is 29 pages long and is filled with information on every page. That is typical of how the banks report. To see trends in credit quality, the best place to look is to examine consumer and commercial non-accruing loans. A non-accruing loan is a loan that is seriously delinquent, usually 90+ days. A bank no longer reports interest income from these loans and reserves for future losses. I am putting on the screen consumer and commercial non-accruing loan data for JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America. For 2Q25, 1Q26, and 2Q26. These 4 banks combined provide a large window into credit quality trends. If there was a serious trend of deteriorating credit, we would see increases in non-accruing consumer or commercial loans or both on a year-over-year basis and a quarterly sequential basis. We certainly saw large increases in consumer non-accrual loans leading up to the GFC. We are not seeing that now. At all. I want to emphasize that at all. The credit data is benign in both consumer and commercial. For those of you who are just audio listeners, I'll just focus on JPMorgan and Bank of America. For JPMorgan, total non-accruing loans were $9.4 billion in 2Q26. They were down 5% year over year and down 2% versus 1Q26. The numbers at Bank of America were also very benign. 2Q26 total non-accruals were $5.8 billion, down 4% year over year and flat with 1Q26. Conclusion: the credit trends reported by the large banks are very benign. Maybe a credit cycle will emerge, but we are not seeing it in the banks. That is an important data point. The banks have the broadest credit exposures, so their results are a concurrent indicator. And this brings me to my conclusion about the state of the US economy. Since the GFC, many commentators have tried to predict the next crisis. This is it, they say, and then it isn't. Perhaps the most important story of the past 17 years is how powerful and resilient the US economy has become. Yes, there are problems in private credit with respect to overexposure to software, and perhaps these software issues are harbingers of an approaching credit cycle. Yet the banks have shown once again that credit quality in the US is okay. Until that changes, the US economy will be fine. Fine, yes, but we do have a K-shaped economy, so it's not fine for everyone. I just don't see a recession, though, on the horizon as long as bank credit quality is benign. The problems that may emerge in the US economy rest not with the banks. They rest elsewhere. Whether AI will succeed or fail, whether private credit will show more problems— that is where problems could occur. In my view, The banks this time are not leading indicators. In the past, I have said, as the banks go, so goes the economy. Probably not this time. The banks are extremely well-capitalized and their credit quality is benign. The potential issues in AI and in private credit will determine whether and when there will be a recession. It would be much easier to predict the future if the banks were the leading indicator, because the data the banks produce are voluminous and transparent. While private credit is much more opaque, making future economic weakness much trickier to see. Frankly, I'm starting to think that the entire future of the US economy hinges on the success or failure of AI. That's why I talk about it so much. As for the financial results of the banks this quarter, they once again posted powerful results, largely because of extremely strong investment banking and trading. The banks are partial beneficiaries of the AI boom as companies with AI financing needs are going to Wall Street for help. These results produce record levels of returns. Here's a brief synopsis. JPMorgan, EPS was $6.14 versus $4.96, 24% growth. Revenue was also a big beat and was up 15% versus last year. The return on tangible common equity was a very strong 23%. Bank of America also reported a great quarter of $1.21 versus $0.89, 36% growth, and versus the consensus of $1.12. Revenue was up 15% on better trading, investment banking, and it had nice operating leverage. Return on tangible common equity was a strong 16.5%. Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has a history of occasionally disappointing, like last quarter, but not this time. Wells results beat. EPS was $2 versus $1.60, 25% growth. Again, the strong results were largely from trading and investment banking. Wells' return on tangible common equity has been stuck at 14 to 15% for many quarters. This quarter elevated the ROTCE to 17.7%. Impressive. Citi also had a good quarter for similar reasons. The company reported EPS of $3.15 versus $2.12, 48% growth. Company posted strong results in services, trading, and investment banking, and the return on tangible common equity was 13%, the same as the first quarter of this year and versus 8% in the second quarter of last year. Right now we are in a golden age for investment banking. Trading volumes are high. AI is creating massive financing needs. The IPO market isn't bad and M&A is very strong. That's why the most powerful results this quarter came from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reported a great quarter. It reported EPS of $20.98 versus $10.91, 92% growth. Wow. Again, the results were supported by powerful trading and investment banking, and the return on tangible common equity was a powerful 25.5%. Like Goldman, Morgan Stanley produced powerful numbers too. Revenue was at record levels and up 27% versus last year. EPS was up 62%, and the return on tangible common equity was a best-in-class 26.6%. As to how to value the banks, the easiest and most consistent way is to look at the return on tangible common equity. The higher that percentage, the higher the price to tangible common equity. That's why Goldman, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are valued at 3 to 4 times tangible book. Their return on tangible common equity exceeds 20%. At the same time, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citi are at 1.3 to 2.1 times tangible book. As their ROTCs are 13 to 18%. Our one mailbag is a follow-up from last week. Last week, I answered a premium subscriber's question as to what I read. I provided a list of books, mostly history books, but I also mentioned that I read graphic novels and comic books, partially because I find them somewhat oddly prescient, and they also tell great stories. I did not provide any titles. So, of course, several viewers asked for titles of graphic novels. This could be an endless discussion. My digital comic book collection exceeds 11,000 comics. If I listed every comic I like, we'd be here all day and all night. So I'll just name my top 21. Number 1, Sandman by Neil Gaiman. Maybe the greatest comic book ever written. The Netflix series was pretty good too. It's about the God of Dreams. 2, Lucifer by Mike Carey. A Sandman spinoff. And yes, that Lucifer. Lucifer quits being the devil and ends up living in Los Angeles. This comic is one of the deepest theological stories I have ever encountered. Number 3, Fables by Bill Willingham. Snow White, Sleeping Beauty, and Prince Charming have been living in Greenwich Village for hundreds of years. A great story. Number 4, Hellblazer. Varied authors. Some authors were better than others, but the character Constantine is complex and amazing. Number 5, Swamp Thing, one of the most underrated comics ever, but one of my favorites. Alan Moore changed the entire story. Number 6, The Dark Knight Returns by Frank Miller, published in 1986. This story changed comics forever and made comics darker and much more serious. Number 7, Batman: Year One by Frank Miller. And number 8, Daredevil: Born Again, also by Frank Miller. Number 9, Watchmen by Alan Moore, an iconic comic. Number 10, Lazarus by Greg Rucka. This comic is ongoing and has been going on for more than a decade, but it's the best dystopian story in comics. The entire world is ruled by a few rich families. 11, Nemesis by Mark Millar, just a great story. Wolverine: Old Man Logan, an alternative history comic. 13, Welcome to Tranquility by Gail Simone, superheroes living in suburbia. This is an amusing story. Number 14, Flashpoint by Geoff Johns. What happens when the Flash changes history? The results are not good. 15, The Boys by Garth Ennis. The original story of a world where superheroes are bad. Up is down and down is up. 16, Starman by James Robinson. Robinson takes a B-level superhero and elevates him. 17, The Golden Age by James Robinson. What if Hitler had survived? 18, Avengers Disassembled by Brian Michael Bendis. What happens when a superhero goes completely insane? 19, House of M, also by Brian Michael Bendis, the sequel to Avengers Disassembled. 20, Powers by Brian Michael Bendis. What happens when a superhero loses his powers and becomes a cop? And finally, 21, Alias by Brian Michael Bendis. This comic introduces the character Jessica Jones to the Marvel Universe. It's a story of an emotionally damaged superhero who becomes a private detective. And in honor of the new movie The Odyssey coming out this Friday, I have a book recommendation. There are many novels that explore aspects of the Iliad and the Odyssey, and I've read several. For me, the best one is a trilogy written by David Gemmell. The first book is called Lord of the Silver Bow. It's a complete reimagining of the Trojan War story, and it's fantastic. This last Monday, July 13th, we released on our free service an interview with Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo, and we discussed a broad range of topics but focused a lot on the impact of AI on the overall US economy. So check it out. And this coming Monday, July 20th, we will release an interview with Ben Callow, the sustainable energy and mobility analyst at Baird. We discuss how the buildout of AI data centers has upended the entire sustainable energy landscape, creating a hypergrowth story. The best way to support The Real Eyes and Playbook is to subscribe to Substack and to YouTube. Subscriptions are free and we appreciate your support. And that's the wrap. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The host and guests may hold positions in stocks discussed. Opinions expressed are their own and not recommendations. Please do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Evening, buyer's remorse. Buy a new car? I'll be moving in. Let's get started. Uh, sorry, I I think there's been a mistake. I bought it from Carvana. You what? Yeah, great price. I even have 7 days to love it or return it. So there's no— No, no buyer's remorse. More like buyer's rejoice? I guess I'll let myself out. Congratulations! I mean it! Buyer's rejoice! Buy your car today on Carvana. Limitations and exclusions may apply. See our 7-day return policy at carvana.com. Your team just added its 67th AI tool and also your 67th security blind spot. The good news? The Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background, finding every app your team uses, scoring the risk, and drafting fixes for you. Vanta is the platform used by over 16,000 fast-moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey, who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk. Get started at vanta.com.
Steve Eisman — The Real Eisman Playbook · Bank Earnings Just Gave the Market a Much Needed Confidence Boost | The Weekly Wrap · 2026-07-17Yeah, there's 8 audiobooks out, I believe. I don't know how many actual books there are. I'm not there yet. I'm on Dungeon Crawler Carl. Dungeon Crawler Carl. Yeah, Andrew, you want to give the synopsis? Because you're the one that sold it to me. Sounds terrible.
Andrew — Waveform_ The MKBHD Podcast · OnePlus is Dead… (In the US) · 2026-07-17That is interesting. I remember when, when, uh, he talks about it on my show, and it had an accounting scandal then. And then it, you had huge demand from AI. It went up a tremendous amount and it's because it's capital expensive. There was some bad thing that people should look into. Um, but yeah, okay. That's interesting. Ben, one question I wanted to ask you, what do you make of the bear case for the software in the semiconductor supply chain? I'm not talking about NVIDIA, I guess, although I kind of am maybe, but I'm in particular, the two companies are Cadence and that they, to explain for our audience, They design the software that the engineers are going to use when they make the— when they design the chips. And this has been the ultimately like high-power software and like a lot of software, super high retention. And then they, they get, you know, net dollar expansion, upsells, yada, yada, yada. So great business. But I mean, if AI really is so transformational, then maybe the AI companies are going to design their own software and save money on the, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars that it probably costs to, to license this software. So, you know, this is probably the stocks that are up the least this year, Cadence and Synopsys. What's your outlook on this, on these, uh, on these two names, and the overall, the bear case on semi software that, like, you know, this AI, AI can make software, cost of software is zero?
Jack Farley — Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · The Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are Overrated · 2026-07-14Yeah, I mean, that's— I think when OpenAI released the Jalapeño chip, they said they did it themselves. I mean, I don't know the details of what they use, but EDA, electronic design automation, Synopsys and Cadence have been a duopoly for a long time and they were sort of unassailable. And obviously now with software multiple headwinds, people are wondering if AI companies can just do it themselves. I think the, the jury's still out. You, you still get a lot of libraries and FIs and things like that that these companies offer. And if Jensen put $5— was it $5 billion or $2 billion? How much you put in Synopsys?
Ben Koolandian — Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · The Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are Overrated · 2026-07-14