Nomura Holdings ($NMR) podcast mentions
Timestamped Nomura Holdings ($NMR) mentions across our podcast corpus.
So my career path is I started Ed Nemora in the early '90s, got on the desk, a fixed income research desk in 1991 with an 8.5% tenure, a gigantic term premium. And I'll just remember I was working for the chief economist and the entirety of the kind of research was around the Fed trying to win bond market credibility. And to lower that term premium. So that was a long time ago. But, you know, as we talk about term premium now is so much higher than it was maybe a decade ago, there have been periods where it was much higher than it is now as well. I did 2 years of business school after Nomura. I got just fascinated with options, the theory of option pricing, and that's really been my career.
Dean Curnutt · Forward Guidance · The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt · 2026-09-16Yeah, on purpose. Has traded tens of billions of dollars yen personally in his life, right? Clearly no other Treasury Secretary has done that. Um, and he's not afraid of the market. Like, you would ask almost any other Treasury Secretary, right, they'd be very scared about the, the market kind of, uh, rolling them, uh, and currency fluctuation. Yeah, I think the currency market is pretty scary, but now we essentially have a form of intervention both in the currency market and dollar-yen, and we also have a form of intervention in the treasury market with these long-end buybacks, right? So he said he doesn't want to intervene in the oil market, so that for some reason he thinks that's a little bit different, but he is clearly willing to intervene in a way we have really not seen for a long, long, long time. And I think what is happening with Japan is fairly logical in the context of his history. He's always been a Japan expert. Actually, the reason I know Scott Bessen is that I was head of research in Nomura Securities, which is the biggest Japanese broker, right? And we always talked about Japan together when Abenomics started.
Jens Nordvig · The Compound and Friends · The Most Interesting Macro Moment of My Lifetime with Jens Nordvig · 2026-09-11Yeah, I joined Nomura in 2009 and those were the years. Yeah. So there was that when the euro crisis happened.
Jens Nordvig · The Compound and Friends · The Most Interesting Macro Moment of My Lifetime with Jens Nordvig · 2026-09-11Well, overseas, Nathan, the yen advanced to a 1-month high as a rush to unwind the yen-funded carry trade signals ramped up bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The move follows hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BOJ could raise rates at 3 consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario where yen weakness persists, according to Nomura Securities.
Karen Moscow · Bloomberg News Now · Hormuz Crisis Stretches On, August Jobs Preview, More · 2026-09-04Well, overseas, Nathan, the yen advanced to a 1-month high as a rush to unwind the yen-funded carry trade signals ramped up bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The move follows hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BOJ could raise rates at 3 consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario where yen weakness persists, according to Nomura Securities.
Karen Moscow · Bloomberg News Now · Vance Says Iran Conflict Not a 'War,' August Jobs in Focus, More · 2026-09-04Appreciate it. Looking at Avalon Bay, this is one of the best-run apartment REITs out there. And so you own it for a long time. It owns a lot of apartments in major cities. And it's interesting is those struggled kind of post-pandemic, but then that started to turn around as of late. And actually rents in those areas are starting to increase again, places like New England, New Jersey, New York, Mid-Atlantic, here in Southern California, Northern California, Seattle, those markets still remain strong. So yeah, it did pull back, like you said, jumped off the S&P, but that doesn't change the underlying characteristics of the business. In fact, a lot of times that forced selling actually creates a buying opportunity. So I would continue to hold AvalonBay. Now lastly, let's talk about interest rates. Interest rates have continued to go up. You see, I talked earlier, the 30-year at 5.3%, the 10-year approaching 5%. Again, this is impacting mortgages and the cost of capital all across the, the economy. A lot of people think it's what's going on with the deficit, but it's not just that. There's the crowding out theory that there's a finite level of capital when certain sectors of the economy demand capital. Well, that's less capital from other parts and the cost of capital goes up. And you're seeing that now with the AI companies. Nomura Securities estimates that roughly $200 billion of borrowing by the biggest tech tech companies alone is equivalent to roughly 25% of US Treasury net issuance to private investors. That's 5 times more than it was last year. And investment-grade companies have sold $1.5 trillion of bonds this year. That's up 36% from a year earlier. So we're on pace to break the record that we saw in 2020. Remember 2020, we had rock bottom interest rates. Now interest rates are much, much higher, yet they're still borrowing. Alphabet's borrowing at 6.4%. Meta paid over 7.5% in their recent issuance. And if you think you're not exposed to this, you are. Why? Most likely you own a target-dated fund. Most likely that target-dated fund has an indexed bond fund within it. If it's an indexed bond fund, what is that doing is it's just mirroring the entire bond market. And so it's taking a slice of that.
Justin Klein · InvestTalk · Global Shipping Under Siege: How Hormuz, the Black Sea, and Red Sea Threats Hit Your Investments · 2026-08-18So be careful about what you're listening to. That's a really good call actually, because I mean, I think that that's a, yeah. Translation requires interpretation. That's how it works, right? The human brain, like, takes in input in one language and then based on our understanding, we output in another language, right? And if you've got someone who's obviously not in this situation, a subject matter expert, right? They're not an expert in how to run companies or how your business operates, right? They're probably going to miss some very important pieces of information. So, I think if you're in that situation, you need somebody who is like an advisor to be working for you. Like, look for— I had actually many years ago, I had a retired chap work. He was like, he'd worked in the industry for many years and he'd worked at Nomura and then he worked at BNP Paribas for a long time. He'd been 30 years at Nomura and then he was at BNP, I think for another 10 years or, and then he came to us and he was kind of retired basically, but he was bored. And he was just such a wonderful person to work with because first of all, he could speak both English and Japanese because he'd lived in America when he was working at Nomura. He'd lived in the US for 10 years or something. Um, and also he knew the domain that we're in. Mm-hmm. Not a business leader, but knowing the domain and knowing the business that you are in is essential because there will be a lot of very important things probably that could easily be missed by somebody that doesn't have expertise. Yeah. Um, if they're from outside your field. So I think finding somebody who's like retired or semi-retired, semi-retired and looking to do something. And they also bring vast amounts of just general experience. This chap used to sit next to me. We worked together for about 10 years. One of the greatest people that I've ever worked with. There was nothing that he did not know about security settlements, about how the Japanese market worked, like, you know, how, you know, not a salesperson was it. So, you know, you can't ask him to go out and sell, right?
Speaker B · Japan's Top Business Interviews Podcast By Dale Carnegie Training Tokyo Japan · 290 James Marsden — Head of Post-Trade, Asia Pacific, Broadridge Financial Solutions · 2026-08-14Customers can select a sauce and up to three toppings, while the pizza includes parmesan-encrusted pan dough, two layers of cheese, and garlic seasoning. Cowen analyst Andrew Charles said his firm likes the pizza's inclusion in the $6.99 mix-and-match platform, which should curb the risk of degrading average ticket. But he questioned whether the item is priced low enough, given consumers can purchase a medium pizza instead. The pizza chain operator says the format is meant to address modern pizza occasions, which must mean you can share a little with your AI BFF. And in the Wall Street research corner, spot gold has rebounded to $4,400 an ounce, its highest level since June 5th, while trading above its 100-day moving average for the first time in recent sessions. The recovery has forced computer-driven trading funds to completely change their strategy. Creating what Nomura's Charlie McGillicott calls a gold reset. Just weeks ago, these automated models were betting against gold. Now they've flipped their positions, pouring an estimated $1.5 billion into the market. And if gold crosses the $5,056 threshold, these funds are projected to go full tilt, maximizing their bullish bets. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsl. And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with Quant News news and analysis by heading to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.
Kim Kahn · Wall Street Breakfast · Inflation cools but stays stubborn · 2026-08-12Does the Nomura strategist predict Japan?
Joe Weisenthal · Odd Lots · Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading · 2026-07-16I don't— like, honestly, for, for them, I have no idea what, what data they're using, whether they're using an Elo model, whether Nomura has on-ball event data, tracking data. There's different ways that you can come up with these predictions. But I think, you know, I like to say stay in your lane. And I think sell-side analysts should stick to sell-side analyzing.
Mike Tracy · Odd Lots · Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading · 2026-07-16I know. So this other Tracy Alloway chart went viral from Nomura showing that the hyperscaler free cash flow projections is essentially going from, I don't know, $700 billion to effectively zero over the next 12 months. And this is Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle. I, I just think we're getting to the point where we're testing like the metal of these, the intestinal fortitude of these CEOs to stick with this. They keep saying, no, we're gonna, we're gonna, we don't care. The bigger risk is backing down. I just think it's really interesting if they're, we're gonna power these memory producers higher and our stock price is gonna fall. How long can they handle that for?
Michael Batnick · Animal Spirits Podcast · Is Debt Fueling the Rally? (EP. 471) · 2026-07-01I mean, think about how fast these companies have grown up too. This has all happened in the span of 4 years, essentially. These are the— Anthropic is potentially the fastest growing company in history in terms of revenue. You're right, it hasn't translated into earnings yet. I think the ability for them to do a perfect baton handoff from all this CapEx, and you're right, going from high margin businesses, very efficient. To, all right, we're going from intangible to tangible. Like we've done a full reversal. That's why all the companies in like the '70s and '80s, the valuations, uh, they had to be so much lower because the margins were so much lower, right? So it makes sense that companies are more highly valued today. But we're seeing this trade-off from all these companies. And there was, there was a chart that went around this week from Nomura that was totally viral about taking the, the big hyperscalers, Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. In showing that their free cash flow has gone from $750 billion to essentially projected to be zero almost by the end of this year because they're spending so much money.
Ben Carlson · Plain English with Derek Thompson · SpaceX, AI Bubble Fears, and The Age of the Trillion-Dollar, Zero-Profit Company · 2026-06-26I watched the video. Okay, so Meta is expected to spend basically 90% of their revenue, not their free cash flow of their revenue. And guess what? The market is saying, don't like this next chart from Tracy Via, who made this Nomura hyperscaler free cash flow projections.
Michael · The Compound and Friends · Almost Midnight, Micron Preview, Alan Greenspan RIP, Hello Jane Street, the Case for Meta · 2026-06-23It's deserved in the sense that the media has more latched onto, or had more latched onto my bearish views on equity markets, but not my bullish views on government bonds. Now I joined the sell side. So I've been working in Finance since 1982. I joined the bank of England just over the road here, but I joined after a little stint on the buy side, which is why, by the way, I write such short notes, because I've actually had to read these notes on the buy side over the years. Now I know the clients and readers aren't sitting there waiting for them. And if they can't read them in about three, four minutes, they're not going to read. They're not going to read them at all. But I joined the sell side in 1988 at Kleinwaltz became Dresden Kleinwaltz. I was there for almost 20 years. But I saw the back end of the Japanese bubble and I saw what Richard Ku at Nomura used to describe the balance sheet recession in Japan and how it unraveled. And by the time we got to. And how Western economists were saying, you're doing it all wrong in Japan. You should be just liquidating the capital stock and to get rid of this deflation. And I was thinking, well, firstly, actually what's happening in Japan is they're just ahead of you, 10 years ahead of you in the west, because their bubble was a lot. Their credit bubble was a lot earlier. And when it bursts in the west, you won't be doing what you're recommending that they do. You'll be slashing rates, you'll be doing everything to stop recessions. But the key thing about Japan, so the back end of 1998 when I thought this is coming to the West, I developed what I call the Ice Age view, which is secular stagnation thesis, which is essentially Lawrence Summers the excess of savings over investment, investment driving down real yields and bond yields and causing a rerating of valuations. But we saw in Japan after a while that actually your inflation and bond yields and interest rates would carry on coming down, but after a while it wouldn't cause any more P expansion. Actually quite the reverse that inflation got so low and so close to deflation it would cause P contraction. So what I was trying to do is bolt on a financial market view onto the secular stagnation thesis. And that ran all the way from 1996. I ran with it. I thought it was coming immediately after the Asian crisis. You mentioned guilt yields being their highest since 1998. I can remember that the aftermath of the Asian crisis, the Russian GKO crisis and swear longevity helps, by the way. I might not be able to remember what happened yesterday, but I can remember 20 years ago quite well. And then from 2000 onwards you started to see as bond yields got lower, problems were merging within the equity markets. So that was basically the Ice Age thesis and it worked very. So although I was an equity bear and well known for that, I was very much a bond bull, government bond bull.
Albert Edwards · Odd Lots · Why_SocGen's_Albert_Edwards_Sees_Double-Digit_Inflation_Coming_Back · 2026-05-15mean, yeah, the easy money is done for now. Like, I don't know. I mean, so here's another one I want to show from Nomura, Charlie McElligott. He always has some great microstructure stuff too. And this is just looking at NASDAQ skew and volatility. And if people remember, like the first reason I got sort of bullish a couple months ago was when we were looking at put SKU and just how ridiculous it was in the opposite direction that you see right now. And I mean you can see it in these charts, right? Like look at where in, in the bottom left three month call skew in the cues was just like end of March, you know, it was, it was way, way, way down. It's just like, okay, regardless, everybody's way too protected here. We got to go. We, we just got to have this relief route. And now it's the complete opposite where you can see like call SK is at the highest. Put skew on the bottom right there is at the lows. Things like the derivatives data has completely flipped upside down very, very quickly.
Speaker C · Forward Guidance · The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup · 2026-05-15