Lam Research ($LRCX) podcast mentions
They are, they are absolutely printing, Max. And I'll say this, that Marathon Petroleum, MPC, I've looked at— they have a very good history of treating their shareholders well, of dividends and buybacks. And that is in stark contrast to the shipping world, which I think their earnings are honestly probably even more on fire than refining, if that's even possible. And, but they, you know, they are known, uh, their corporate governance structure is a little more loosey-goosey, specifically when it comes to the Hellenic Shipowners, um, some of whom basically have, you know, they run the, they run their same fleet. They have a private fleet and then they have a publicly traded fleet and they run that out of the same office. Which is not, you know, what you'd expect kind of from 21st century corporate governance, uh, MBA style. But Max, I just want to talk about, like, is— are the earnings too low? Are there— so I think, I think Marathon Petroleum EBITDA estimates, they seem a bit high to me. One company that estimates seem wildly too low is, is just, uh, Lam Research.
Jack Farley · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · Hawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s Gameplan · 2026-09-16They're, um, I think we're sharing now. So yeah, they most recently just reported a bombshell quarter and they guided to I think $8.2 billion for the quarter that is basically happening now, and they're going to report. But the growth that they're forecasting after that is so anemic. And I really think that you're going to have a huge step up in demand because the companies that are buying these machines are, yes, like semiconductors, you know, logic fabs like TSMC and Intel, but also a huge percentage of them, like 30 to 40%, and probably going up, is memory. So SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. And that, you know, that's the biggest bull market in, in, in history is just memory producers. So they're, they're clearly going to do everything they can to increase capacity, and the, their machines are going to go up a lot. So I, I have a low conviction view that MPC estimates are too high, but I have a high conviction view that Lam Research estimates are, are too low.
Jack Farley · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · Hawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s Gameplan · 2026-09-16We're going to take a look at the trade-offs of the Fed decision coming up later this week. We also have voicemail calls, one in regards to investment in land and timber, and then Lam Research, LR CX. And of course, we have questions that came in via the comment section on Invest Talk, on the Invest Talk YouTube channel, so we'll get to those as well. But we're gonna do a quick break, and please remember you can call anytime and leave your question on the Invest Talk voice bank. And if you're listening via our live stream or possibly on AM 1220 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at 888-99-CHART. Up next, I'll comment on today's market activity. It's official, total lifetime downloads for the Invest Talk podcast are now more than 63 million. Justin Klein is here now taking your calls live. Invest Talk, 888-99-CHART. Let's go take a look at the market today. It was an overall down day, but certainly mixed overall. You had the S&P down about half a percent, NASDAQ down a little more than half a percent, the Dow down a little more than a quarter percent. Really, the losses were heavily concentrated in large and mid-cap tech growth, call it, uh, but certainly tech-related on the back of news over the weekend that Uh, and it was an essay from Anthropic CEO Dario Amadei calling for the slowing of the improvement in, in AI, worrying that it could be becoming dangerous and maybe wipe out human civilization in a, in a number of years. So he, he talked about really dialing back, uh, the the growth in embedding third-party evaluators into the system. And that certainly caused the gap down. We did rally for most of the day, so it wasn't that bad of a loss overall, but you did have some major losses in names like Nvidia down 3.3%. A lot of the product manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing companies like Lam Research or Applied Materials, those were down considerably. You had names like Corning down 13%. What else? Micron down 5%. Broadcom down about 5%. So a lot of the big winners from AI were down anywhere from 4% to 8% for the most part. And that's what really dragged down the market as a whole.
Justin Klein · InvestTalk · China's Rare Earth Export Halt: When Supply Chain Leverage Becomes a Market Weapon · 2026-09-14I love the podcast. I've been a listener for about 4 or 5 years. I had a question about Lam Research, LRCX. I want to get your thoughts on it and if it was attractive to you or if it had to go a little bit lower for it to be attractive to you. And I would like to get a price point. That you like. Thank you. Hope to hear the question answered on the podcast. Bye.
Steve · InvestTalk · China's Rare Earth Export Halt: When Supply Chain Leverage Becomes a Market Weapon · 2026-09-14All right, looking at Lam Research, LRCX is the symbol, and this is a, a name that is in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing business, a name that was down pretty big today. See, what was it down today, about 8.3%. And I think that is the issue. That's, that's the tell here that this is in the heart of the AI trade. It moved up considerably from a low back in last spring of around $50— was this $55 in that range, mid-50s— all the way to a recent high of $436 and change. Now we're down to $273. After the drop today. So I think there's still more downside to come. I think it's still good business, but clearly this got ahead of itself. So the question is, where is major support? Let me give you a number here. I definitely wouldn't touch this till at least 200, 202, in that range. So I think there's plenty of downside to come. Momentum is certainly broken. But once again, it's a good business. We like it. We own one of their competitors, Jose. So I would say it's not our favorite within this particular space, but it's certainly a good company with a good business. It's just a matter of, you know, the shine around AI and AI buildout. I think it's coming off currently. So momentum is down and I'd be very, very patient with it. So I'd pass on it for now. But at $200, I would give it a solid look. So hold off. Thanks for the call. The next Invest Talk, we'll look into the story, Gold's Big Comeback: Why the World's Largest Money Managers Are Loading Up Again. The world's biggest money managers are quietly building their gold positions. That signals rising concern about geopolitical instability, inflation persistence, and currency risk. That story is for tomorrow. But for now, I'm Justin Klein. I'm ready to take your calls now or anytime at 888-99-CHARTS. At KPP Financial, accountability means more than advice. It means we invest alongside you through our parallel investing approach. When we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principals invest their own capital at the same time, same day, same price, same percentage. If your portfolio moves, Ours does too. That is alignment. That is transparency. That is the KPP difference. Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review.
Justin Klein · InvestTalk · China's Rare Earth Export Halt: When Supply Chain Leverage Becomes a Market Weapon · 2026-09-14That is a symbol for the YieldMax Ultra Option Income Strategy ETF. Now, if you look on a lot of websites, there might be a trailing 12-month yield number of 4— about 41%. And for a lot of people, they think that that is the return that they're going to get by buying this particular ETF. Now, this is the extreme example, and that's why I'm using it, but there are many others, or dozens and dozens of others, of these Yieldmax and other fund family ETFs that are basically manufacturing a headline number of a big yield, and it's roping a lot of people in chasing that yield. And they're usually getting that yield by selling covered calls, something that we do. I do that for clients. I We buy the underlying security and then we sell call options and bring income in and roll those monthly. And it can be a good strategy if executed well. Problem is, is that a name like this is really chasing that premium by buying some of the riskier names that are out there. If you go look at its portfolio, its top holding is MercadoLibre. That is a tech company in South America. Lumentum Holdings, AMD, Lam Research, Comfort Systems, Caterpillar, Palantir, etc. Those are some of the top 10 names. What they all have in common is they have very high volatility, which means that when you sell call options, you're getting high premiums. And therefore, of the 55 holdings, you know, you're getting some diversity, but you're still very concentrated in technology. About 45% portfolio is technology. Versus about 34% of the broader S&P. But the devil is in the details. Once again, yes, their headline is high. And I'll, I'll say, I think the, the SEC or whatever regulatory body should come in and say, that's not really what you should, how you should think of it as pure income. Because what you're doing is you're selling off upside potential for that income. And that can be good once again, But just selling high— what is called implied volatility— to get high premiums doesn't automatically guarantee you high returns. And you can see that by the actual trailing returns, total returns of this portfolio. And that's what you have to look at for all of these ETFs. You have to look at total returns.
Justin Klein · InvestTalk · World Food Prices Hit Four-Year Highs: Is Food Inflation Already Baked into the Next CPI Report? · 2026-09-12Before I dive into AI, I want to explain that our community on Substack has grown enormously. I write a note and chat in Substack almost every day, and I get many comments, which I learn a great deal from, and I'm now going to share some of them. When I share these comments, I may jump into the middle of the comment to explain what the commentator is getting at. So here we go. The Ed Zitron interview got a lot of responses from viewers, many positive, but some negative. One viewer sent in a long email criticizing Ed's negative thesis on AI, and I quote it below. Steve, I'm surprised you characterize NVIDIA's strategy as circular financing. Historically, semis were roughly 45% gross margin businesses. NVIDIA is now operating at close to 80%. Economically, NVIDIA is extracting rent from hyperscalers and then using it to finance their emerging competitors. What the subscriber is pointing out is that NVIDIA's margins are unusually high. They weren't 80% this quarter. I think they were 74%, but still very high. And it is using some of that excess profit to support the AI ecosystem with financing. I continue. Initially, Those competitors were the AI labs. Increasingly, they are the neo clouds and the open source OpenWeight ecosystem. Hence the strategic logic of acquiring Hugging Face, which NVIDIA acquired, I believe, last week. Hyperscalers hate this dynamic. They are responding by developing their own silicon, working with Broadcom, Marvell, and others. But this takes time. His point here is that the hyperscalers know that they are overly dependent on NVIDIA and they hate it. And they're looking for alternatives. I continue. In this knife fight, you want to be the one selling the knives. Upstream semiconductor suppliers such as ASML, KLA, LAM Research, and Applied Materials, together with memory suppliers such as Micron and SK Hynix. They benefit regardless of whether the winner is NVIDIA, a hyperscaler, an AI lab, or some architecture we haven't seen yet. A second order effect is that all this competition should drive the cost of inference and models sharply lower. Lower prices should stimulate usage, which in turn drives greater demand for compute, memory, and semiconductor manufacturing capacity. So Nvidia's actions may actually accelerate the commoditization of the very economics from which it currently earns extraordinary rents. In that sense, Nvidia is a modern-day Robin Hood.
Steve Eisman · The Real Eisman Playbook · AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap · 2026-09-11No, Aura. Oh, Aura. Yeah. I mean, that's such a niche thing. I mean, obviously the application layer and, you know, kind of this idea of how we're going to access— by the way, as we're talking about how yesterday was all about the software leaders of the S&P this morning. SanDisk, Seagate, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Western Digital, Teradyne, Micron. So we're back to hardware. And so that's the toggle that's been in place. You know, be, you know, be careful about extrapolating. Yes.
Mike Santoli · Squawk on the Street · 9AM HOUR: Hassett on Jobs Report, Diesel Hits a Record High, Tesla Cybercab Launch Reaction 9/4/26 · 2026-09-04