Kohl's ($KSS) podcast mentions
You mentioned earlier that when you're feeding data into a model, as the world changes, we might be using an outdated playbook. And I think one of the things that I don't subscribe to anymore is that discretionary stocks tell you a lot about either the stock market or the consumer. So, uh, yesterday I saw a guy, Q Capital 2020— that's a satirical account. I don't know if he's kidding or not, but, um, doesn't matter because what he's showing is real. A lot of the consumer stocks, specialty retail, have been blown to smithereens, right? Like American Eagle today down 15%, Dick's in the last month down 38%, Burlington, uh, Casey General Store— I mean, a million. They're all, they're all getting killed. Advance Auto Parts, whatever, whatever it is. You name it, they're getting killed. So I brought some charts that I want to go through. Uh, let's start with chart 11, please. So this is the United States Redbook Index and retail sales, right? Just retail sales year over year. Nothing really in here that is noteworthy. I had the guys take a look at all of the names of companies that reported same-store sales going back to 2001. So we have like a decent data set here. Chart 12, please. So this looks pretty similar to this latest chart. So in here it's a composite of Ross Stores, Bath and Body Works, Starbucks, Costco, Target, AutoZone, Dine Brands, Brinkler, Williams-Sonoma, Walmart, Macy's, Gap, Home Depot, Abercrombie and Kohl's, and same store sales. All right. It's up 5.1% year over year. So where I'm going with this is— Chart 13, please. If you look on the left at an equal weight discretionary relative to the S&P 500, this thing is at the lowest level. It's crashing. It's crashing. But guess what? It's been crashing. It's been going from the top left to the lower right for the last decade, and it's told you nothing, nothing at all about the stock market. This has happened while the stock market, equal weighted and otherwise, is at an all-time high. So instead of looking at the stock price, which has all sorts of information in there, it could be valuations, it could be idiosyncratic risk, it could be—
Michael Batnick · The Compound and Friends · The Most Interesting Macro Moment of My Lifetime with Jens Nordvig · 2026-09-11Yeah, um, so I would tell you, uh, surprised that I'm in this chair. I went to school to be an architect when I was, when I was, uh, going into college and realized that I wasn't very good at math, so I decided to, uh, maybe go work for the FBI, and I got into the criminal justice side of the business. I was always fascinated by the law. I ended up going to law school after college and did that route, but started working with the Treasury Department right out of law school and worked for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. Realized that I did not like government service. It just wasn't my gig. It wasn't what I wanted to do forever. And so, during summers during school, I had worked at Target and caught shoplifters. So, just kind of a side make some money gig. And Luckily, I was able to get back my foot in the door with Target after I left the government and worked for them and just worked my way up through the ranks. So been here, been at Kohl's Department Stores for 10 years. I was at Sears for 10 years as the CSO, and then I came back here to Home Depot 8 years ago.
Scott Glenn · Odd Lots · The Rise of Organized Retail Crime at Big Box Stores · 2026-09-10Hi, my name is Lindsay Kohl. I am a professor.
Lindsay Cole · Planet Money · Cost-cutting, quiet guilt and the inflation generation · 2026-09-09