$ATI Tape Reports
Per Ticker.id: $ATI Tape Reports — timestamped podcast mentions, volume, and share of voice. Latest 2026-07-16 20:14 UTC.
As I mentioned, the markets have been really volatile in the first week of July, especially with geopolitical events and a lot of the AI companies, the investors believing that they've been overextended in terms of valuation have sold off. So we've gone literally from being up 50, up 70% to up 57% in a short period. Irregardless, I'll take a 57% return any day of the week. Uh, 8 out of the 10 names have generated positive returns with 8 stocks providing double-digit returns or better. We have, uh, Micron Technology up 200%, Advanced Microsystems up 148%, Sienna up 98%, Coherent up 71%, ATI, which is an aerospace and defense company, up 55%. Allstate Financial up 22, almost 23%, and Celestica up 19%, and NSA up 12.2%. All the stocks that are up are beating the S&P 500. We have two names that are down, Barrick Mining and Wilden, down 21% and 34% respectively. Having said that, stripping out the performance and just looking at our factor grades, So we identify 5 core factors, and when we recommend stocks, we want them to be collectively strong on those factors, which are value, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions. And you can see for the most part, all top 10 stocks really look quite good on these various metrics. Majority of the stocks are still strong buy or buy. We have 3 companies that have a hold, and hold to me means hold. It doesn't mean sell. And even with our AlphaPix product, if a stock drops from a strong buy or buy to hold, we keep it in the AlphaPix portfolio for 180 days. So again, hold being sold, it does not mean sell. You know, part of the reason why for Coherent, the valuation grade dropped to a D, so it's gotten a little bit expensive, but the growth grade is still an A for the company. It still has very strong momentum and analysts are still very positive. You can see it has a B grade for EPS revisions. So that means the majority of analysts are taking their estimates up as opposed to taking it down. And again, these are all sector relative grades. So whenever you look at the valuation grade or the growth grade for this company, you know it's relative to the sector.
Steven Cress — Investing Experts · Steven Cress' Top 2 Stocks H2 2026 · 2026-07-16you know, my old company, we used to use Concur. A lot of companies use Concur, and they have nearly half a million customers in over 180 countries. Now, year-to-date, this thing has been brutalized, down 32.99%. Year-to-date, down 46.73% over the past 52 weeks. So this name that was once trading at 43 times price-to-forward-looking earnings is is settled down to about 17.6 now. Their most recent quarter ended April 23rd, or rather they reported April 23rd. Looks like cloud revenue was up 27%, pretty solid. Cloud ERP suite revenue growth 30%. Current cloud backlog rose 25%. Total revenue was up about 12%. But in spite of the revenue and earnings beat, because earnings rose, uh, 20%, despite that, the stock fell roughly 6.1%, 6.2% after hours. And one of the reasons why is the CEO has flagged that for them, they're seeing a bit of a slowdown in, uh, deal closing. And so although that may not weigh on past revenue, past earnings, certainly could weigh on the future. And in fact, you had this growth acceleration they were hoping for in their guidance really thrown out the window for 2026 and pushed deeper into 2027. Another thing to keep in mind, I mean, this is not a US company, it's a German company, meaning if the dollar is strong versus the euro, that's a pretty meaningful headwind. I think what I do like though is there really is, is growth here. Um, I mean, their operating margins are still really solid. EBITDA margin actually grew from 2023 into 2025 from 25.5% to 31%. It's probably one of the most important tech companies in Europe. And as I mentioned at the top, I mean, it's at its cheapest valuation in years. It's not the cheapest it's been over the past 5 years, but it is, it is pretty cheap, and a lot of it has a, has a, uh, the business has a moat that certainly no business in Europe has cracked in half a century. But you have those things going against it. There's an AI-driven modernization cycle that's real. Given the slowdown in the business and slowdown in growth projections into '27 though, what's the short-term near-term catalyst. I'm not exactly sure. For me, I mean, this thing is kind of at support here. It's broken down, it's technically poor since the beginning of 2025 or middle of 2025. I like this company, I think it's a solid one. I think it has a solid growth, uh, path into '27, but picking it up right here might be a stretch. I'd wait to see if it really floats around the support here because, I mean, it's a cheap valuation and the upside certainly is there. That is SAP, S-E-A-P. Thanks for the call. Well, we had a great show yesterday. We looked into a story about the Roth conversion window and how mid-year is really a smart time to start to model conversions because when you get to year-end, I mean, tax planning gets a little bit rushed. We also answered a listener question on ticker ATI, which is ATI Inc. It's an American producer of specialty materials that is headquartered in Dallas. So they produce metals like titanium, titanium alloys, nickel-based alloys. So we talked all about that company and some of the reasons why we hold it for clients. That question was submitted via the comment section of the Invest Talk YouTube channel. And as always, if you happen to miss yesterday's show, I encourage you to go check it out. And remember, the best way to never miss a show is to follow Invest Talk wherever you get your podcasts. All right, on to today where we have another great story to bring you, namely one about what happens when the AI bubble pops because the trade is really seeming to lose its north star. In fact, Bloomberg is reporting that one of the key signals driving the AI trade losing a bit of its reliability, and that raises a critical question for all of us. Who have built positions around AI infrastructure, around chips, around related names, because when the narrative cracks, understanding what's driving valuations underneath becomes more important than ever. Also, a story we tried to bring you yesterday, but we ran out of time on the earnings bubble fears on Wall Street. An analysis on how AI has really taken over the stock market and the bond market is probably next. And should we have time at the end of the show, we'll touch on how banks are exploring a deal to fundamentally change payments and transactions and why that might be a little upsetting to Mr. and Mrs. Consumer. We also have some voicemail calls ready to play, including one on Roth conversions, a follow-up on the show topic yesterday, it seems, and another on Applied Industrial Technologies, which is ticker AIT, not to be confused with ticker ATI, from yesterday. We also have some questions that came in from the comment section of the Invest Talk YouTube channel, and hopefully we hear from some of you live throughout the show. We're going into a quick break. Please remember, you can call anytime and leave your questions on the Invest Talk voice bank. In fact, if you're listening via our live stream or on AM 1220 in the Bay Area, I encourage you to call now at 888-99-CHART. Up next, we'll cover today's market activity.
Luke Guerrero — InvestTalk · What Happens When the AI Bubble Pops? The Trade Is Losing Its North Star · 2026-07-08Well, Lauren, let's take a look at AIT, which is Applied Industrial Technologies. This name has been very strong since— oh, all the way back into 2020, where it has pretty much perennially outperformed its industry in the market, with the exception of 2025 when it was only up 7.2%. But this year it's up 22.81% in spite of it being down 4% today. Now what they do is they operate through two segments. So their service center, which is bearings, power transmission, and fluid power and maintenance, and then engineered solutions. So custom automation, robotics, motion control. It's one of those industrial names that we, uh, like. We like this name. We've been looking at this name. And I think the theme that this name attacks, industrial automation, is one of the most, uh, appropriate themes, one of the best themes within the industrial space. Now they report earnings pretty soon now, looks like the end of this month, August 6th. So let's look at their most recent earnings, which is all the way back in April. And so it's going to be pretty stale. I mean, revenue was very solid passed $1.3 billion, which was above the $1.2 billion forecast. It was a beat there. And then on earnings, they matched. But this together, along with the fact that they had 6% organic sales growth, means it was its strongest, really strongest quarter, I would say, in over 2 years. And then they repurchased a bunch of shares. They repurchased 93 million shares during that quarter alone, authorized another 3 million share repurchase— I'm sorry, that's $93 million in shares— and then authorized a new 3 million share repurchase. Same time they raised guidance. I mean, there's a reason why this name is doing, is doing so well. It's benefiting from organic growth in, you know, what is a bit of a recovering industrial cycle. You still have the benefit here of the AI theme because they're engineered solutions. I mean, that attacks data centers, semiconductors. And from a valuation perspective, I mean, it's expensive. It's 27 times price to forward-looking earnings. But I mean, you're paying for that growth. It's executing really at the top of its game. Any time you see guidance raise beats organic growth, this is exactly what you want to see here. Um, but I don't know, you're buying fresh today, you're pretty much buying it at a full valuation that at least in the near term has, has a bit of a limited upside here. So for me, I'd probably wait for a bit of a pullback. It's trading nearly the most expensive it's been in the past 5 years. That is AIT, again not to be confused with yesterday's question on ATI, Applied Industrial technologies. All right, let's take a look at another question that came in from the comment section of our YouTube channel. It says, software names haven't been doing great lately because of fear that AI soon will take over everything and so on. I don't really think that. Neither do I, Jimmy. Or at least I think that many names within the sector have fallen too steep. I agree. I've started to buy some Adobe. Do you think it might be the right time to pick it up? Adobe is something I use. I use their, their, their package software because I am an amateur photographer. So I use Photoshop and Light Studio. Yeah, it's a digital media, digital experience, publishing, advertising company. It's really been beaten down. I would say not just because of AI, but because Well, because it hasn't done a good job integrating, integrating AI. There's a couple flags here, uh, that are, are important to note. Their CEO is stepping down after 18 years, which could be a good thing, could be a bad thing. Um, they have no permanent CEO. They have no permanent CFO who stepped down on the 15th. And they kind of did this pivot because they're really concerned about their AI user growth over the near term towards freemium. So they're explicitly kind of accepting pressure on subscription revenue. And that's one of the reasons why this thing is down 41% over the past 52 weeks, down 36%, uh, year to date. And it's in spite of it having a record quarter. I mean, 13% year over year growth. They beat revenue. Um, they're seeing AI-first ARR triple year over year. They beat on earnings by about 2.4%. Anytime you have a company that's struggling from a valuation perspective, struggling from a price perspective, the market sees it in a bit of, in a bit of trouble, in a bit of distress here. And then at the same time, you have an executive departure. I mean, that's, that's a, that's a bit worrisome, I would say. So what's, what's kind of the bull case here? You're buying it at 8 times forward-looking price earnings. It's got 84% return on equity. It's where it's supposed to be this year. But leadership is gone. There are AI-native tools that are eroding Creative Cloud, which is the package of, of, um, Photoshop and, and Lightroom and all those things that are essentially causing it to lose its position. It's come to a position where maybe it's too cheap to sell because of where the valuation is. But this is one of those things where you could have said it was really cheap last year, you could have said it was really cheap at the beginning this year, and it keeps getting cheaper. So until you see a bit of a technical turn here, or catalyst, or knowledge about what the path is forward for the company, rather than just, you know, trying to essentially milk the user base by a freemium model, I'd probably put it on pause before I'd enter a position. That is Adobe Inc., ticker ADBE. I'll play one more voicemail from 888-99-CHART.
Luke Guerrero — InvestTalk · What Happens When the AI Bubble Pops? The Trade Is Losing Its North Star · 2026-07-08Now the market was definitely positive today, pretty much across the board. You had the S&P up 72, NASDAQ up 112, Russell 2000 up 45, and Dow up 30, coming off of a holiday-shortened week that tends to take with it, you know, a bunch of liquidity. Overall looks like breadth was positive, though if you actually looked at the S&P those names. You had decliners outnumbering gainers, meaning the equal weight trailed in this case by about 70 basis points. But the big story, or rather the big gainers, big winners, probably semi, memory. I mean, those are the big outperformers. You had AI infrastructure and big tech doing well. Tech hardware, another good performer. Pharma, managed care, homebuilders. I mean, so those were some of your worst performers on the day. So those names that really rotated into last week, uh, had a bit of a rough day. On the bond side, Treasuries were mostly firmer. You did see some curve steepening, specifically on the front end where yields were down about 5 to 6 basis points. Sorry, my cat's going crazy. Dollar index was flat. Gold and silver both finished up about 1% and 2.1% respectively. Actively. But really, that big story, and I alluded to it at the top, was that momentum rebound. Because we had, coming into this week, you had a 2-day slump that saw that software index drop more than 11%. I mean, that is a huge drawdown. And the reality is there wasn't really much behind it, right? You didn't have any specific catalysts other than a lot of discussion maybe about how much the drawdown had overextended itself, and a bit of a positive seasonality on the, on the forefront. You did have within individual names positive news— Broadcom announcing that it was extending its deal with Apple, some infrastructure names talking about potential revenue growth into the next quarter. And so broadening out trade really took a breather. Other than that, not much really going on. You did have some data come in. June ISM Services was in line with the consensus. The employment index was back into expansion territory. But, you know, with the exception of Wednesday, we get May wholesale inventories and the June FOMC, but it's a very quiet week. You do get initial claims, existing home sales on Thursday. Tomorrow we get the May trade balance, but nothing much scheduled for Friday. So If anything, a bit of a lull heading off of the holiday weekend. All right, let's try and squeeze in another question before we head into another break. This one from the comment section of the Invest Talk YouTube channel. It says, I own some picks and shovel companies for AI. Thoughts on ATI, TSMC at these current prices? How are their current valuations? All right, let's take a look at ATI first. ATI is actually a name we hold in one of our strategies. ATI is ATI Inc. It is up 121.14% over the past, uh, 52 weeks. It's just going crazy this year, up $67.36. It's a specialty metals company, so they essentially manufacture all of these high-performance alloys, not just for energy infrastructure, right? That's been a big thing. Nuclear reactors is another big theme that has gone along with the AI theme, but also defense systems, jet engines. And they've seen a bunch of growth specifically in aerospace and defense. I mean, that makes up 68% of their overall revenue. And with this run-up, I mean, it is looking a bit expensive. It's just off of their average. It's only— it's trading about 14.5 times price-to-book value, about 38.3 times, uh, price to forward-looking earnings. So certainly, certainly it's a bit more expensive than it has been. That's understandable when a name is up so much. And, you know, one of the good things about this name is, is they have a huge backlog. And anytime you get a company that has a backlog of, of orders, you essentially have revenue visibility, in this case for many years. And not only are they growing revenue, I mean, margins are expanding. So they're up from 16% in EBITDA margin in '24 to 17.7% this year, projected to grow further to 21%. It's meaningful, meaningful growth there. Again, I like that name. We like that name. There's a reason why we own it for clients. So, yeah, I would say one issue— we've, we bought it a while ago. I'd say one issue for entering a new position is just valuations. But, you know, certainly ATI is a good, is a good name. For your portfolio. Fortunately, we got to move on. Didn't have time to take care of 2 stocks, but we do have time to take care of another listener voicemail from 888-99-CHART.
Luke Guerrero — InvestTalk · The Roth Conversion Window · 2026-07-07It's really beautiful, and I look forward to them learning from this, growing, and being an even greater force out of Asia. Um, in the nightcap, Colombia won Ghana nil. Clash between two teams have promised they're going to become more aspirational move into the elite without ever really doing so. Also share something else. Colombia is one of Ghana manager Carlos Queiroz's many, many, many exes. Managed them 22 months across 2019 onwards. 6 World Cup. Dude legit walked up into Kansas City, I think it was like 89 degrees at kickoff, with a gold chain, sweater draped over his shoulders. He looked like a New York golf funk who dabbles in waste management. I admire his style greatly. Both teams goal-shy, gone about 15 shots total in the group stages, the lowest of all. That's Quiroz's ball. And we've always said Colombia could be dangerous if they could find a sharper edge. 5 minutes in, quite bizarre injury. John Cordoba ripped a fistful of, uh, of Apuko's shirts and seemed to pull his groin in the process. That sacrifice. On came Luis Suárez. No, not that one. Not that one either. This is the Sporting Lisbon striker who replaced Víctor Jóquez, 38 goals last season. And manager Nestor Lorenzo will be taking credit for that because 10 minutes later Suárez cut across back, that sailed inches over Luis Díaz's head, um, the Bayern Munich man streaking across the goal mouth, and it fell to John Arias. One time passed it back across the goal for the opener. It was ecstatic. Ghana had to sub out the injured Marvin Saniyah. First time in World Cup history both teams made a substitute in first 15 minutes. It reminded me when you get dressed in a snowsuit, uh, full on, and then you decide you actually have to go to the bathroom. What else can we tell you? James Rodriguez hooked at halftime, my mate. Uh, Luis Diaz had the ball in the back of the net, we talked about that. Really platonic ideal of a Luis Diaz goal where he slid in but it was offside. Uh, you love the Ghana goalkeeper Lawrence Atie Ziggy.
Roger Bennett — Men In Blazers · Cape Verde fall to Argentina in an all-time classic: Night Cup 07/03/26 · 2026-07-04Yeah, no, Amy, it's a very good question and it's a good point. What is the value proposition? You know, it's like, do customers want what you're making? And then the key second question is, can others do what you're doing right? And that is hard. And honestly, Amy, you know, listen, I got my notes. You know, Jensen, I first met you in 22,002. You were talking about the GeForce 256. And he was like, oh, that was the first GPU. I had no clue how important GPUs could be. And a matter of fact, for, you know, the first 15 years, it was very competitive between Nvidia and then the other company I think was the ATI or something. But, you know, originally it was graphics accelerators. And then he had the great insight. He was talking to his customers. Often the great entrepreneurs are close to their customers. He realized that people were buying GPUs to do things like in hospitals, analyze X rays. And also, you know, then he saw the AI boom. You know, he delivered that first GPU to Elon and the folks at OpenAI, which is remarkable. But I would say for me, it's what have you done in the last five years? And if you've grown profitably and gained market share, you're probably doing something better than everybody else. If you're growing really fast, you're onto something new and that can be very powerful. But often it's better to wait and you find out who's really good after the competition hits you. I mean, I was an investor, Chicago based company, Groupon. And I was like, wow, this is exciting, you know, because we like did some Google search and it was like they were the fastest company to a billion in revenue. And I was like, I have to own this thing. This is, you know, taking off. And then at least Amazon and maybe somebody else copied them and it didn't scale and it ended up being a rocket ship that blew up pretty badly, unfortunately. But so, you know, I don't know if there's any secret sauce. It's a bit of a slugging average where you have to hope that the company keeps executing. One of the strengths of Fidelity is despite reg, FD is just monitoring what's going on. And I take my notes. And in the case of Terry, I was like, terry, I haven't seen you since 2024. This is what you said two years ago. What's happened? You know, have you executed? And you know, there's always stuff that happens to management teams. And it's fine if, you know, yeah, we were wrong. You know, well, what did you learn? You know, it didn't work in India. Well, what did you learn? Didn't work in California or something. What did you learn? But so for me, it's like, what happened in the last five years? Do I like this earnings trajectory or the, you know, the sales trajectory? And then, you know, without getting into reg fd, you know, what is the opportunity? Looking out the next five to 10 years and hopefully you have confidence that management will be able to execute. But I've been shaken out of a lot of good stories, Amy. And the beauty of the business is you can, you know, I tell the team and I tell all your investors and tell you guys, if a stock has doubled, you haven't missed it. And lately I've been saying, if a stock has quadrupled, you haven't missed it. There's a lot of stocks are up now, but. And that. That it is a little hard. You know, you know, these. But, you know, Munger, of course, advised Warren Buffett, better to buy a great business at a fair price than, you know, a fair business at a great price. But, you know, some of the PEs get up there and you're like, you've got to believe further out and you've got to believe that you really understand the business. And. But yeah, I would say we're continuing to learn. And sadly, Amy, I always joke, it's like mistakes are part of the game. Just try not to make the same mistakes. And somehow I keep making the same mistakes, but we're trying.
Will Danoff — The Long View · Will Danoff: ‘Be Very Careful of Unprofitable Companies’ · 2026-06-23Not all my ideas are good either, but the. And so I think the people who, you know, indigenous societies that. That live in the landscapes in which their oral histories are persistent, you know, there are many oral traditions that speak to much more complicated relationships, and I think we've not. So that's the one part that's what leads me to think there's more complexity. And then I think scientifically we've tended to ignore these in part because the Western tradition elevates humans so much, and so it elevates us as separate. And so, you know, the theologian Amina Atis Bradford argues that part of this is that the reading of. In the Christian and Jewish tradition of in God's image, and are humans in that tradition separate from other animals or are they the same? Her argument would be. It's not a very long line, and you can read it a bunch of ways, but Western science read it as separate. So then built this science that heightened the separateness. And people constantly want to say humans and animals. And it's a. It's a subtle thing, but it's a reminder of how deep in our minds that separation is. And so when you make that separation, the idea that you're. You're speaking on some kind of common terms to other species becomes not serious science.
Rob Dunn — Many Minds · Mutualisms all the way down · 2026-03-11